Here is the list. Let’s specifically look at the New York prospects and weigh in on their rankings.

29 Manny Banuelos lhp, Yankees Age: 21. ETA: 2012.
Yankees player-development boss Mark Newman compared his poise to Whitey Ford—when Banuelos was 18.

This ranking is in line with most in the industry. Manny is a Top 30 prospect, even with his control/nibbling issues that cropped up last season. Once he begins to attack hitters and do a better job against right-handed batters, watch out.

35 Zack Wheeler rhp, Mets Age: 21. ETA: 2013.
Will have to pay Paul DePodesta to dress up like Dick Tidrow now that he’s a Met.

The strikeout potential is huge, and many feel his ceiling is just a bit higher than fellow farmhand Matt Harvey. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does at Double-A this year.

54 Matt Harvey rhp, Mets Age: 23. ETA: 2012.
He has the stuff to outperform recent Tar Heels alumni in a major league rotation, with the bullpen a good fallback option.

I think this ranking is too low. Harvey should at least be 15-20 spots higher in this list. His ceiling may not be quite as high as Wheeler’s, but it’s very close. I also think he has a higher floor.

63 Dellin Betances rhp, Yankees Age: 24. ETA: 2013.
Last year he became the 10th member of New York’s 2006 draft class to reach the majors.

I discussed Betances earlier today here on the blog. This is a make or break season for him.

81 Gary Sanchez c, Yankees Age: 19. ETA: 2014.
Took hits for his defensive ability and makeup in his first full season, but dished them out with his bat.

Another ranking that looks just a bit too low, but there is some risk here, so I can understand it. Sanchez has good power and extremely high upside, and could shoot up this list with a strong 2012 campaign.

85 Mason Williams of, Yankees Age: 20. ETA: 2014.
Heads up a deep, athletic group of Yankees prospects headed to low Class A Charleston.

Huge upside and great tools. This is a conservative ranking, and Williams is in the same situation as Sanchez in regards to growth potential.

I did a pretty extensive review of Yankees prospect Dellin Betances’ pitching mechanics over at Pinstripe Alley yesterday. My gut tells me he winds up in the bullpen very soon without a complete overhaul of his mechanics.

Still combing the web for Betances information, I came across this article over at Baseball Prospectus, which gave Betances the nod for ‘best curveball’ in the minor leagues. Here is the write-up on the pitch, courtesy of Jason Parks:

Curveball: Dellin Betances (Yankees)
TCF: There are quite a few high-end curves in the minors, so the talent pool was deep and the decision was difficult. When polled, lefty Matt Moore’s power curve received more votes (it was close), but Betances had more fervent support, with one source calling it “a career-defining pitch.” It’s a long season, and this particular source has been in the sun for too many months without respite, but hyperbole aside, the pitch is legit. Coming from the arm of a man standing close to 6-foot-9, the tumbling knuckle-curve presents depth that hitters struggle to track, as the vertical dive is extreme and sharp. The command isn’t there yet, which limits Betances’ curveball’s overall effectiveness for now, but it’s still a plus pitch when it’s loose, and when Betances owns it, it’s plus-plus offering full of nastiness.

That changes the game completely. The talent is there for Betances to be a top of the rotation starter, so why not completely remake his mechanics so he can maximize his talent and be more efficient and effective when he pitches? Roy Halladay was broken down and built back up early in his career, so why not give it a try with Betances?

Moving him to the bullpen would be such a waste of his talents. It also may not solve his control problems, so what would it solve?

He’s a risky prospect as it is, so why not go all in and try to maximize your reward if you’re the Yankees? It’s something to think about heading into the spring, as many eyes will be on his performance now that pitchers and catchers have reported.

The optimism for Yankees 2012 and the pessimism for Mets 2012 has hit Las Vegas. The 2012 over/under lines are out, and the oddsmakers have the same general New York forecast as everyone else. Joy in the AL, pain in the NL.

Understand we’re discussing these over/under totals for news matter only; the last thing we’d suggest is anyone putting a few pence on these things. But it’s always fun to project the season to come, and we always want to collect outside opinions on the subject.

With that in mind, let’s check the numbers, division by division. We’re just giving an overview today; come back in a month and we’ll map out our expectations for all teams in much greater detail.

AL East
Yankees 93.0
Rays 87.5
Red Sox 87.5
Blue Jays 81.5
Orioles 71.0
No shock here: it’s the money division and four teams are expected to be good (don’t sleep on the Blue Jays, a team with talent, smarts, and resources). It’s hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel for poor Baltimore, overmatched in the division of sharks. Boston looks like a sleeping giant at that number; there’s still a deep roster there.

AL Central
Tigers 94.0
Royals 78.5
White Sox 77.5
Indians 75.5
Twins 74.0
The Detroit infield defense could be a joke, but there’s enough thump to outscore the rest of the division. The Royals are probably one year away from being major contenders. Things got ugly in Minnesota pretty quick; the M&M Boys (Mauer, Morneau) can’t seem to stay healthy and productive. Robin Ventura was a curious hire in Chicago, with no managing experience at any level.

AL West
Rangers 94.0
Angels 89.5
Athletics 73.0
Mariners 72.5
Texas has it all, money, stars, depth, a loaded farm system, and even a tiny division to compete in. Houston comes in for 2013, a gift to the house. Mike Scioscia’s teams generally outperform their pythag expectation, so watch out now that the skipper has a stacked hand. Oakland and Seattle will fight over the basement all summer.

NL East
Phillies 95.5
Braves 85.5
Marlins 82.5
Nationals 81.0
Mets 74.5
A little surprising that the Phils are such prohibitive favorites; this is a team with its share of holes (aging infield, for one thing, and questions in the outfield). Maybe Vegas can’t pick the best challenger. The Braves had an uneventful offseason but their pitching is deep. Miami and Washington have made major upgrades. If the Mets can even challenge for .500, it will be a surprise.

NL Central
Reds 87.0
Cardinals 87.0
Brewers 81.5
Cubs 73.5
Pirates 73.0
Astros 62.5
The Cardinals have neatly retooled despite losing Pujols and the coaching staff (the pitchers will really miss Dave Duncan), but Cincinnati’s got a better roster 1-25. The Brewers probably won’t have Ryan Braun for two months, and obviously Prince Fielder isn’t coming back. Despite a loaded rotation, they’re longshots. Houston’s looking at the weakest big-league roster on paper (and on spreadsheet) but the front office has started to make a number of modern, SABR-friendly hires. Give it a few years.

NL West
Giants 87.5
Diamondbacks 84.5
Rockies 81.5
Dodgers 81.5
Padres 70.5
The San Francisco pitching gets the nod here. Arizona outperformed its run production last year and could be primed for a fall. The Rockies generally are tough to beat in their home park, but I’m not sold on overrated bench jockey Jim Tracy. The Dodgers are top-heavy: Kemp, Kershaw, then question marks. The Friars need a long-term rebuild.

It was just four years ago, early in February 2008, when the deal came down. The Mets made the aggressive move for Johan Santana, sending four prospects to the Twins and tossing a six-year, $137.5 million extension at the lefty (mandatory for Santana to waive his no-trade clause). It was a bold move, a big move, and a celebrated move. The Mets had the best pitcher in baseball, locked up and loaded. Forget about the crash of 2007; here comes the savior.

What the heck went wrong? How did we get to where we sit today, with a down-and-out club (is there anyone not picking the Mets to come in last this year?) and a suspect ace? Is there any chance someone can take a sad song and make it better?

Let’s go back in history and revisit the story.

Santana entered the NL in 2008 off three dominant years; he collected two Cy Young Awards and three straight strikeout titles on the way out of Minnesota. He wasn’t out of this world in his Mets debut but he was plenty good in 2008, going 16-7. He led the NL in ERA and innings pitched, he struck out 206 batters (lower than anyone expected), and he was third in the NL Cy Young race. Okay, for starters, not bad.

Alas, there were some warning signs in that first year. Santana’s strikeout rate dipped from 9.7 to 7.9 and his walk rate nudged forward from 2.1 to 2.4, surprising changes given that he was moving to the non-DH league. Expected to dominate in the NL, he was merely very good.

But hey, anyone in Flushing would welcome back that “merely very good” pitcher today.

Physical problems were the story in 2009. Santana had an offseason knee scope and an elbow problem from the spring hampered him all year. He still made 25 appearances and was solid enough: 13-9 record, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Most teams would take that from their No. 1 starter. But when you’re paying someone megabucks to be the best pitcher in the league, it comes off as a disappointment.

Elbow surgery followed after the 2009 season, but nonetheless the elbow was a problem for most of 2010. By the end of the year a shoulder crept into the mix. Santana somehow got through 29 starts and was plenty effective (2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 144 strikeouts), though he didn’t get much help. He finished the year 11-9, his lowest win total since becoming a regular.

And as New York fans well know, he hasn’t pitched in a big league game since. (more…)

If you believe in the new math, Jonathon Niese hasn’t been too lucky during his short MLB career. And with that in mind, Niese looks like a possible 2012 breakthrough candidate.

Let’s go to the ERA tote board, courtesy of Fangraphs.com:

FIP refers to Fielding Independent Pitching, judging what Niese would be expected to do with average luck and defense behind him. The xFIP number adds a normalized HR/FB rate into the mix. Note how his out-the-door ERA is consistently higher than what the component stats suggest.

Niese had a bunch of under-the-hood stats moving in his direction last year. He pushed his strikeout rate up, he trimmed his walk rate significantly, and he raised his ground-ball rate to a sparkling 51.5 percent (ground balls don’t turn into home runs, other than in Little League). Niese was slightly unlucky in three areas: he allowed a .333 average on balls in play, his strand rate was just 67 percent, and his HR/FB rate was 10.4 percent.

Follow the K/BB rate here, friends, and note that Niese is still just 25. He’s a key name to know for the 2012 season. I won’t be the least bit surprised if he steps into the discussion for an All-Star spot.

Mark Teixeira used to be in the elite class for roto first basemen, but he’s no longer priced that way entering 2012. You’ll need a Top 10 pick to land Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto or Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder is somewhere in the Top 12-16 in most pools. But Teixeira’s current tag is a downright-affordable 27, and that makes him a downright steal.

Teixeira’s durability and run production have been stable since he hit New York. He’s never played less than 156 games since hitting The Bronx three years ago, and he’s posted 306 runs, 111 homers and 341 RBIs. Who wouldn’t want a stake in those numbers?

Batting average is the tricky element to Teixeira’s value these days. After hitting .292 in 2009, he’s fallen to .256 and .248 the last two years. A curious BABIP dip has driven that trend: although his career BABIP is a solid .296 (around the MLB average), he’s been at .268 and .239 the last two years. A slight tweak downward in his ground-ball and line-drive rates will partially explain the batted-ball movement, but no bona-fide hitter clocks in at .239 without a lot of bad luck.

Nows the time to swoop in and make an easy profit. You can land Teixeira in the late second round or sometime in the third round in most mixers, and that sets you up for an easy profit. The New York lineup is still the deepest in the majors (it’s been second, first and first in runs scored the last three years), and Yankee Stadium remains a tailor-made fit for Teixiera. 2012 Projection: .271-103-36-114-3. Highly recommended.

I did a quick study of fastball velocity (FBv) and wins above replacement (WAR) over at Pinstripe Alley, and thought it would be fun to take a look at the Mets starters to see how they stacked up to my numbers. Here are the guts of the analysis:

I only used pitchers who qualified for the ERA title each year, and the above categories provided a pretty even split among the pitchers. The numbers you’ll see are the average WAR of the group.

Here are the results (I’ve included links to the Fangraphs pages with the specific filter used, in case you’d like to play around with the numbers yourself). You’ll find the number of pitchers in the sample group in parenthesis next to the category:

2011

Above 93 MPH (16): 4.54
92.9-92.5 MPH (18): 2.71
92.3-91.2 MPH (18): 3.52
91.1-90 MPH (16): 3.62
Below 89.9 MPH (26): 2.03

2010

Above 93 MPH (17): 4.50
92.9-92.5 MPH (10): 3.70
92.3-91.2 MPH (19): 3.38
91.1-90 MPH (17): 2.93
Below 89.9 MPH (24): 2.37

2009

Above 93 MPH (16): 5.23
92.9-92.5 MPH (6): 3.42
92.3-91.2 MPH (16): 3.43
91.1-90 MPH (18): 3.71
Below 89.9 MPH (21): 2.37

Now, let’s take a look at the potential Mets rotation, and their average fastball velocity:

Mike Pelfrey: 92.2 MPH

Jon Niese: 90.6 MPH

Johan Santana: 89.4 MPH (2010)

Dillon Gee: 89.8 MPH

R.A. Dickey: 84.4 MPH

The first thing you should do is completely disregard Dickey, because he doesn’t rely on a fastball for success. Next, you need to toss Santana to the side until we see how hard he’s throwing once the season rolls around.

Pelfrey should be performing way better with a fastball as big as his. He proved he can have value in ’08 (3.0 WAR) and ’10 (2.8 WAR), so there is hope yet for him.

Niese had a very productive ’11 (2.7 WAR), and with further progress, should equal or exceed the average WAR for his grouping. He’s highly underrated, and will be a key member of the Mets rotation moving forward.

Gee posted a measly 0.2 WAR in ’11. He should take a step forward in his second season, but how big of a step is something Mets fans are sure of heading into ’12.

Thought this was interesting from the Mavs’ blog MavsMoneyBall.com

Y’all, I never thought I’d say this, but Linsanity is real. I’ve watched it with my own eyes. The kid can flat out ball, and he made one of the NBA’s toughest defenses look sloppy and slow. The fourth quarter saw another lead change or two, and also the first ever three-point made in an NBA game for Dominique Jones. SO that was special. What wasn’t special was Steve Novak absolutely DOMINATING from beyond the arc. Oh, and that Lin kid, too.

But what about the Mavericks, who told Tyson Chandler before the game they had an answer to Lin:

“He looks a little bit like Steve Nash out there,” Kidd said, referring to the two-time MVP of the Phoenix Suns.

“I think they found something in Lin, and they’re starting to piece together a team that can beat anyone,” Mavs guard Jason Terry said.

This is an underrated aspect of Lin’s season. His rate of shooting free-throws per 36 minutes is far and away the best ever for any Knicks guard who has started at least eight games in a season. We’re looking at the post-1979 three-point shot era. Here are the stats, through Sunday:

Baseball Prospectus’ Jay Jaffe put together this piece highlighting the great career of the late Gary Carter. The whole thing is great, and worth the time to read through. This particular section jumped out at me, where Jaffe listed Carter’s value compared to other catchers using WARP (wins above replacement player):

Bench was the best hitter of the bunch (as well as the only one to win an MVP), but the other three were closely lumped together, with Carter offsetting the shortest career of that trio with the most defensive value. So much value, in fact, that he came to dominate the catcher WARP rankings, though his youth helped in that regard; he was more than six and a half years younger than Bench and Fisk, and four and a half years younger than Simmons. Still, he held his own during the portion of their careers that overlapped. Picking up in 1972 after Bench had already led the league twice (1969 and 1970, with 7.6 and 8.6 WARP) and finished second once (1968. 5.1 WARP), here are the top three catchers by WARP in each season during the hearts of their careers:

1972: Bench 9.2, Fisk 7.4, Simmons 5.9
1973: Thurman Munson 6.8, Ferguson 6.7, Simmons 5.2
1974: Bench 7.4, Ferguson 4.5, Simmons 4.1
1975: Munson 6.7, Tenace 6.4, Simmons 6.4
1976: Munson 4.9, Simmons 4.9, Bench 4.6
1977: Fisk 6.7, Carter 6.5, Simmons 6.2
1978: Fisk 6.3, Simmons 6.0, Carter 5.4
1979: Darrel Porter 7.6, Brian Downing 5.6, Tenace 5.5
1980: Carter 6.5, Simmons 5.6, Rick Cerone 4.9
1981: Carter 3.2, Sundberg 3.1, Fisk 2.6
1982: Carter 8.4, Lance Parrish 5.0, Terry Kennedy 4.7
1983: Carter 4.9, Fisk 4.5, Parrish 4.1
1984: Carter 6.5, Bob Brenly 4.4, Tony Pena 4.3
1985: Carter 5.6, Fisk 4.9, Rich Gedman 4.7
1986: Carter 3.4, Parrish 3.3, Gedman 2.8

A seven year run of dominance behind the plate is truly an impressive feat. Carter stood head and shoulders above his peers during this time, and was able to cap that run off with a World Series victory in ’86. The Hall Of Fame is certainly lucky to have him.

What a great career.