Jets fans need to see more of this

The list is made up of QBs since 1980 who threw at least 15 picks with less than 15 TD passes as a true rookie. First, I wanted to see what the average improvement in TD/INT ratio was for this population in the second season, minimum of eight starts. Did Sanchez beat the average? (Note that Ryan Leaf missed his second season, so what’s noted here is actually his third year. And Jack Trudeau was similarly injured early in his third year so you see here his fourth.)

THE PURPOSE: To see what we should expect in TD/INT ratio in Sanchez’s third year if, like me, you believe that this is the best short-hand measurement for quarterback/team success. (I would argue that yards per pass attempt is very important also, but the standard measure does not account for picks and the one that does is too complicated and speculative in assigning minus yards for every pick.)

Sanchez projection for 2011 after the chart:

IMPORTANT: All the QBs improved after their rookie year. Sanchez’s improvement was almost exactly average (1.34). But the average of players who had a Year 3 is less than that, mostly because Freeman (who seems clearly to be the best QB of his draft class) isn’t included. NOTE that Year 3 improvement in TD/INT is no guarantee, as it was in Year 2. But the expectation, averaging it out, is for very mild improvement for Sanchez of about 0.14 points in improved TD/INT ratio. That would make the over under for Sanchez in 2011 1.45 TDs for every pick.

BOTTOM LINE: Let’s call Sanchez for 2011 at 20-to-21 TD passes with 13-to-14 picks. Any ratio worse than that would be disappointing. Anything significantly better and those who are bullish on him will have very solid evidence that they are right.

And Sanchez in six playoff games, all on the road, sports a 3/1 TD/INT ratio (9 TDs to 3 picks). Sanchez given the disparity between his playoff and regular-season performance (and given the decent sample size of the playoff games) is perhaps the toughest player I’ve ever tried to project.