They need to play coverage and dare the Patriots to run, like last year.

I’ve pointed out earlier in the week how the key was whether Rex Ryan would eschew his treasured blitzing.

Talking today to Rotowire’s Chris Liss and Derek Van Riper on XM radio’s Fantasy Channel, I was pressed to make a prediction on the game. But this boils down to me predicting what Rex Ryan is going to do. If he tries to play chess with Brady and Belichick and trick them by going back to blitz-heavy looks, he will be playing right into the Patriots hands because they can protect and beat you one-on-one. But if they play coverage with at least six defensive backs even on first down, having Darrelle Revis take out Wes Welker one-on-one (no problem for Revis) and then having six or even seven on three or four the rest of the field, Brady won’t be comfortable and his timing passing will be completely disrupted. What will he do? I have no idea. I’d have faith they will do what worked in January until the Patriots prove it can’t work anymore, but this is a staff who though Wayne Hunter could play right tackle and that Vlad Ducasse could play at all.

If the Jets blitz under 20% like in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, they will win or lose a close game. But if they blitz 40% of the time as they did against Brady previously, they will lose by 20 points. It’s that big a deal. Remember, Brady averaged 18 yards per attempt and had a 154 QB rating on 13 Jets blitzes last December (he threw just 29 passes).

As for the offense, max protection is in order even against a weak-rushing Patriots defense. That means either Dustin Keller or Derek Mason are out for an extra tackle (as if the Jets have that) or a blocking tight end (probably former DE Jarron Gilbert, just signed off the practice squad).

Here’s what Prediction Machine.com thinks: