First, the background from my colleague Mike Sielski of the Wall Street Journal:

Those who observe him closely say his increased size and strength are the reason for his fast start, raising the possibility that a kid who plays his home games not under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden but on a mostly barren tract of cracked concrete in Nassau County could be New York’s, and the NHL’s, next superstar.

“He’s so much stronger on his feet,” said Butch Goring, who played 15 years in the NHL and is the Islanders’ TV color commentator. “On one play, two Rangers tried to knock him down, and he was the one left standing.”

My take:

If the recent history of forwards taken first overall is any indication, center John Tavares’s hot start may be a sign that the Islanders have found a franchise player. And that could go a very long way in keeping the franchise on Long Island.

Tavares, entering his third season since being drafted with the first pick in 2009, is coming off back-to-back, four-point games and is among the league leaders in goals and points. Those expecting a breakout note that other number-one overall forwards taken since 2000 have all won major awards within three years of being drafted. Alex Ovechkin (2004) and Patrick Kane (2007) won the Calder Memorial Trophy awarded to the league’s best rookie. Sidney Crosby (2005) won the Hart Trophy in his second season. Steven Stamkos (2008), Rick Nash (2002) and Ilya Kovalchuk (2001) each soon received the Maurice Richard Trophy awarded to the league’s top goal scorer.

The back-to-back, instant stardom of Ovechkin — a two-time Hart Trophy winner — and Crosby created similar expectations for Tavares. Plus Tavares famously broke Wayne Gretzky’s nearly 30-year-old junior hockey league scoring records. But while his first two years were solid for a developing player toiling on bad teams, they fell short of that enormous hype.

But this year, Tavares seems to have fully arrived — skating better, being stronger on the puck and having an impact all over the ice as opposed to only in the offensive zone. In other words, Tavares is performing like a player who alone can tip the scales enough for the Islanders to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007. And that in turn may create the kind of buzz the team needs to finally get its long-awaited new arena.

Here’s a chart: