
The regular-season meeting between the Giants and Patriots (a 24-20 victory for New York) will be almost three months old when Super Bowl 46 kicks off Sunday. Is that too far in the rear-view mirror to take anything from? Opinions vary; we’ll take a look under the hood anyway, sharing some thoughts and observations in bullet form, and then applying those observations towards the game ahead.
• Tom Coughlin is 3-2 with rematch games this year. The Redskins and Eagles took Big Blue down in the second meeting, but the Giants dispatched of the Cowboys, Packers and Niners in the rematch.
• Bill Belichick is 4-0 in rematch games this year, defeating everyone in his division in addition to the Broncos in the playoffs.
• Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) didn’t dress in Week 9, which led to Brandon Jacobs receiving a season-high 22 touches. Jacobs rushed 18 times for 72 yards and a score, and added a surprising four catches for 28 yards. It was Jacobs’s busiest receiving day since the 2007 season finale.
• Hakeem Nicks was the other critical offensive skill player that missed the Week 9 affair. Victor Cruz had a solid bottom line (six catches, 91 yards) though he needed 11 targets to get there. Mario Manningham (3-33, TD) was targeted seven times.
• The Patriots opted to go the coverage route against New York’s passing game back on Nov. 6. Eli Manning wasn’t sacked on the day (right tackle Kareem McKenzie had a particularly strong day in pass blocking), and yet his final passing line was pedestrian: 20-for-39, 250 yards, one interception, two touchdowns. The 6.4 YPA was Manning’s lowest of the regular season (though he hit 5.4 in the NFC Championship Game).
• New England safety Patrick Chung received the best pass-coverage grade in the Week 9 matchup, a 1.5 mark from Pro Football Focus. Chung will need a short memory for Sunday; he was a coverage mess (minus-4) in the AFC Championship Game victory over Baltimore, losing track of Torrey Smith more than once.
• Tom Brady focused on the Big 3 in the November loss, sending 21 of his 28 completions to Wes Welker (9-136), Rob Gronkowski (8-101, TD) and Aaron Hernandez (4-35, TD). Brady was 21-for-30 passing when working with that trio, but just 7-for-19 (for 70 yards) when he threw the ball elsewhere.
• Danny Woodhead logged a surprising 42 snaps in Week 9 and finished with 60 yards on 10 touches – the busiest of the New England running backs. He did a solid job as a receiving back and in blitz pickup. He hasn’t topped 36 snaps in any game since then.
• The Pats lots the first meeting despite having a modest edge in all the yards-per-play stats. New England made 4.4 yards per rush (the Giants were at 3.8) and 6.5 yards per pass (mediocre for them, just as 6.4 was disappointing for the Giants). Add it all up and it comes to 5.8 yards per play for New England, 5.3 for the Giants.
• The Pats had four turnovers (including one fumble and two picks from Brady) compared to two for the Giants, a critical area to be sure. New England also missed a short field goal at the end of the first half.
• Unheralded punter Steve Weatherford had a superb game in this upset, pinning five of his eight punts inside the New England 20. Zoltan Mesko averaged 45.0 yards on his five efforts, but he wasn’t able to pin the Giants once.
• New England defenses generally get better with Belichick as the season goes along. The Pats have allowed 19.6 points per game in the cumulative first half of Belichick’s 12 seasons, but that number trims to 17.2 points per game in the second half of the year.
What does it all mean? Let’s give three general keys for each team as we look ahead to Sunday:
Keys for the Giants
• Find a way to cover New England’s jumbo tight ends, Gronkowski and Hernandez; seam coverage has been a problem for the Giants defense all year
• Keep Eli Manning clean again, standing upright as much as possible
• Hit on a few big plays, something the New York offense does considerably better than the New England offense
Keys for the Patriots
• Don’t let Manning get comfortable; on as many snaps as possible, you must be physically challenging him and/or confusing him
• Play a clean game on offense; another four-turnover effort will get you beat
• Find a surprise offensive skill contributor; getting a few big plays from someone outside the Gronkowski/Hernandez/Welker trinity would go a long way

